上海地铁徐家汇车站商业改造与消防设计

介绍上海徐家汇既有地铁站内商业城及地铁通道项目的改造设计实例,在不破坏原结构的前提下,采取一系列有效措施,可以满足现行建筑消防设计规范的要求,并取得了较好的效果实践表明,在建筑消防设计方面,这些措施对大规模地铁建设中的类似工程(带配线地铁站的商业开发)以及城市地下空间的利用等具有参考意义.     

疏散模式下接触轨系统控制方案研究

通过分析地铁火灾事故特点,并结合NFPA 130相关规定,提出接触轨牵引供电系统和整个疏散救援活动的配合方案。在车站、区间等地设置集成式蓝光站,使牵引供电系统能够准确、快速的切换接触轨带电状态,为疏散救援提供安全保障,提高逃生几率。     

基于FDS+Evac的地铁车站性能化防火设计

针对地铁性能化设计评价过程中火灾烟气和人员疏散仿真不能同步的问题,给出以FDS+Evac仿真计算为核心的地铁车站性能化防火设计的方法。以天津地铁6号线宾馆西路车站的实际数据为例进行性能化评价,说明此方法科学可行、使用方便。     

地铁岛式站台烟控系统的性能化分析

以北京地铁某典型岛式车站为研究对象,建立火灾烟气运动的物理和数学模型,采用计算流体力学方法,模拟站台火灾工况下烟气发展和蔓延过程,分析反映流动与发展特性的温度场、速度场、能见度等的分布规律;同时运用人员疏散动力学方法,模拟火灾工况下人员安全疏散所需的时间.以必需安全疏散时间小于可用安全疏散时间作为性能化防火目标的判据,论证火灾烟控系统的有效性和通道设计的合理性,从而为地铁火灾排烟通风系统的合理设计和人员疏散方案制定提供合理、科学的参考依据.     

地铁车站人员疏散仿真研究与应用

针对地铁运营网络化需求,对换乘车站设施设备进行分析,结合社会力模型,利用Any Logic软件对突发事件人员疏散进行建模仿真,计算高峰状态下,行人疏散所需时间,查找各疏散通道仿真时间,并进行二次优化,寻求人员疏散最短时间,进一步提高地铁运营企业突发事件应对的可控力。     

地铁疏散平台及轨旁设备布设方案的优化

地铁在空间狭长的隧道或者桥梁上运行,人流量大,人员构成复杂。当地铁列车遇到恐怖袭击、输电系统故障以及发生火灾等事故时,为了能迅速、有序地从区间组织乘客尽快疏散至车站,地铁区间需设置应急疏散平台。针对地铁疏散平台不同的设置方法与区间轨旁设备的敷设路径进行了研究,并分析了疏散平台对设备安装空间的影响及优缺点,为后期施工设计及设备安装提供了参考依据。     

飞机排班数学规划模型

分析了国内航空公司普遍采用的单枢纽线性航线结构以及飞机排班工作流程和要求,研究了描述飞机排班问题的数学模型构造方法,引入“航班节”的概念,将一个具体的飞机排班问题归结为三种典型排班模式中的一种,即基于飞机调度指令要求的排班问题、基于最少需用飞机数的排班问题、基于飞机使用均衡要求的排班问题。应用结果表明平均每架飞机分配的航班任务时间与期望飞行时间的偏差仅为4．8min,而且得到飞机排班方案的时间不到23s,因此此飞机排班模式是解决单枢纽线性航线结构下的飞机排班问题的一种有效方法。     

Have tropical marine protected areas worked? An initial analysis of their success

A multinomial choice framework was used to analyze data from hypothetical storm forecast scenarios administered via mail survey to a random sample of U.S. Gulf Coast residents. Results indicate that the issuance of a mandatory evacuation notice and the presence of higher wind speeds had the largest influence on increasing the likelihood of evacuation. Age, race, disability, distance, and education were significant in explaining one's decision to wait relative to choosing to evacuate. Blacks and disabled individuals were strictly less likely to wait and more likely to make an immediate evacuation decision. Hurricane Katrina evacuees and those with an evacuation destination identified were also more likely to decide to evacuate, but were also more likely to wait before deciding. Results indicate that residents of mobile homes were more likely to either evacuate or wait before making a decision, but strictly less likely not to evacuate. Respondents very confident in being rescued were strictly more likely not to evacuate. Results indicate that not having an evacuation destination identified was the most influential factor regarding the likelihood of not knowing what choice to make.     

航母编队作战效能模糊灰色综合评价方法研究

为研究有效打击敌航母编队对策提供决策支持,本文针对单纯采用模糊评价或灰色评价方法都不能客观、准确地评价航母编队作战效能大小这一问题,利用灰色聚类理论得到指标灰色统计量,构造作战效能模糊隶属度矩阵,建立了一种灰色评价与模糊评价相结合的作战效能综合评价方法.该方法能充分利用专家评判信息的模糊性与灰性,使航母编队作战效能综合评价的结果更为客观、准确.     

Leveraging social networks for efficient hurricane evacuation

One of the important factors affecting evacuation performance is the departure time choices made by evacuees. Simultaneous departures of evacuees can lead to overloading of road networks causing congestion. We are especially interested in cases when evacuees subject to little or no risk of exposure evacuate along with evacuees subject to higher risk of threat (also known as shadow evacuation). One of the reasons for correlated evacuee departures is higher perceived risk of threat spread through social contacts. In this work, we study an evacuation scenario consisting of a high risk region and a surrounding low risk area. We propose a probabilistic evacuee departure time model incorporating both evacuee individual characteristics and the underlying evacuee social network. We find that the performance of an evacuation process can be improved by forcing a small subset of evacuees (inhibitors) in the low risk area to delay their departure. The performance of an evacuation is measured by both average travel time of the population and total evacuation time of the high risk evacuees. We derive closed form expressions for average travel time for ER random network. A detailed experimental analysis of various inhibitor selection strategies and their effectiveness on different social network topologies and risk distribution is performed. Results indicate that significant improvement in evacuation performance can be achieved in scenarios where evacuee social networks have short average path lengths and topologically influential evacuees do not belong to the high risk regions. Additionally, communities with stronger ties improve evacuation performance.